Why are flights to Europe so expensive? Blame China

China Eastern flight attendant in Brisbane. Before the pandemic there were nine mainland Chinese airlines flying Australian routes. Photo: Glenn Hunt

Want to fly to Paris in mid-September for a three-week getaway to experience the wonders of late summer in Europe? From either Melbourne or Sydney, you can pick up an economy class airfare on a budget airline for around $2200 but fly on a major league airline and you can expect to pay between $3500-$5000.

The plane ticket has gone through the roof. In July 2022 you pay for a long-distance economy class seat which almost gets you into premium economy before the pandemic. Premium economy seats? Expect to pay close to what the business costs in 2019.

What happened?

Rising fuel prices are part of the reason we pay more to fly to Europe, but another big factor is the lack of low price competition. As of May 2022, a total of 51 international airlines operate scheduled passenger services to Australia. That’s 10 less than in May 2019. Big deal you might think, but most of the airlines that are no longer in our skies are China-based airlines, and therein lies the problem.

Before the pandemic hit, the Chinese airline gave Australian travelers plenty of reason to cheer. If you’re looking for cheap underground flights to Europe, whether it’s economy or business class, chances are you’re flying with one of these Chinese airlines. Even if you fly with other airlines, Chinese airlines suppress the prices that other airlines can charge.

Prior to the pandemic, Chinese airlines had been a huge presence on Australian flights. Buoyed by the sheer volume of Chinese tourists flooding into Australia – more than 1.44 million in the 12 months to November 2019, a fourfold increase over the previous decade – China’s air service to Australia is skyrocketing. In 2009 there were three China-based airlines flying to Australia. A decade later there were nine. Apart from a few daily flights to Beijing, Guangzhou and Shanghai, they also offer non-stop flights to exotic destinations such as Kunming, Chengdu, Xiamen, Hangzhou and Qingdao.

The Chinese government even makes it easy for Australians to have a stopover holiday with 72-hour visa-free entry to 18 cities in China, and 144-hour visa-free entry to a handful of other cities. Visa-free entry is simple. You show up at the check-in desk and tell the staff that you will apply for visa-free entry. On the plane you fill out your arrival documents, head to the visa-free and presto counter – you’re on board.

Australia is eager to play ball, welcoming Chinese tourists with open arms. In December 2016, the government announced its intention to offer fast-track visa processing to Chinese tourists, confirming the introduction of 10-year, double-entry visas for eligible Chinese visitors. The announcement is part of an open sky deal brokered between China and Australia, removing all capacity restrictions on each airline.

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In the first six months of 2019, the nine China-based airlines operating passenger services to Australia carried a total of 915,641 passengers. Assuming an average passenger load of 300 per aircraft, transporting those passengers would require more than 3000 flights. In the same six-month period in 2022, that number shrunk to just three airlines and carried a total of 22,251 passengers. That’s a quarter of the amount brought to and from Australia on just one Chinese carrier, China Southern Airlines, in a single month of January 2019.

In their absence, the remaining carriers have taken the opportunity and jacked up their prices on their European flights. Who can blame them? It’s been a dry few years, they’re carrying huge debts and they’re taking advantage of the surge in demand coupled with stifling supply.

Will the Chinese carriers return?

It wasn’t until the Chinese government allowed its citizens to travel freely overseas, and currently they can’t do that except for essential reasons. Even when those restrictions are relaxed, Australia may not be in the frame. The Chinese government is rapidly arming large numbers of its citizens traveling abroad, turning off the traveler’s taps as it chooses, and right now Australia is in China’s dumpster. If we want to return to China’s warm embrace, we need to purse our lips, submit to China’s more powerful and aggressive demands, and eat simple dumplings. So better get into the habit of paying more for your airfare if you want to visit Europe. On the plus side, no international tourists from China means cheaper accommodation in Asia.

See also: Aussies flock to Europe free of restrictions for northern summer

See also: Top ten tips for surviving today’s travel chaos

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