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The 1973-74 bear market was a brutal one as investors worried about rising inflation and faltering economic activity, exacerbated by OPEC’s decision in October 1973 to stop oil exports to the United States. Move in key steps US blue-chip stock market index, S & The P 500, fell 42.6 percent in the 21 months ended September 1974. Fast forward nearly half a century, and investors are once again spooked by rising inflation and stagnating economic activity. S & The P 500 index fell 20.6 percent in the first six months of 2022, its worst first-half performance in more than 50 years. Since then, however, financial markets have strengthened strongly, with the prices of stocks, bonds and cryptocurrencies posting impressive gains. Since hitting its lowest point on June 16, S & The P 500 has gained 12.6 percent, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq has gained 16.4 percent. The only plausible explanation for this rally is that – like Corrigan – investors have formed the view that it is time to

Mooners and Shakers is sponsored by Dacxi, the world’s first purpose-built Crypto Wealth platform. CPI inflation data comes in, fresh 40 year highs, US dollar up, Bitcoin and crypto markets down slightly. This episode is sure to be played over and over again. Have these high inflation figures been largely “appreciated”? Possible. In general crypto is dipped in the news, but at the time of writing this is nothing more than scraps of paper. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures are due at 8:30 a.m. EST on Wednesday. And at 9.1% compared to the 8.8% expected by most, this is the biggest year-on-year increase since 1981. Good times. At least US financial analyst Jim “As Seen on TV” Cramer calls the inflation peak pretty much here. While it doesn’t inspire much belief according to some/many… Great, we now have confirmation that inflation will continue to explode — Doctor Stonk (@stock_doctor) July 13, 2022 Actually… said Cramer, let’s see if the Fed sticks to the guns of

Another record inflation reading against the backdrop of a tight labor market and rising food and goods prices will, despite the recent declines in oil and therefore gasoline prices, leave the Fed with no choice but to continue raising rates aggressively, even if it does. risk of pushing interest rates up. US economy into recession. In fact, the drop in oil prices – dropping below $100 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time since dropping briefly below that level in April – also reflects the view among traders in commodity markets that a recession and falling demand are imminent. . With inflation at an unprecedented rate and such a raw tool monetary policy, it is almost inevitable that [Fed] must induce a recession to try to control inflation. There are those, including the Fed, who believe that a two-year/10-year inversion, because of their imperfect record in predicting a recession, is less useful as a guide to the economy’s future than a three-month/10-year yield relationship, in

Can we really see the equity base? Rubner certainly sees signs of resilience, not least of which is that for all the pain investors have endured this year, they have continued to hold on to their shares, with small equity outflows this year far from the investor capitulation that has historically signaled the end of a bear market. That the rally on Wall Street was not derailed by the strong US employment data released late Friday also shows fresh signs of resilience. Indeed, the idea that bad news is good news – that is, strong economic data supporting a further round of aggressive central bank rate hikes is actually positive because it will bring about a recession that will see the Federal Reserve start easing monetary policy again – seems to be gaining some acceptance. . The shift from cyclical stocks that will succeed in an inflationary environment towards stocks that win when inflation is low or even falling speaks for itself. Bank of America data showed material stocks on Wall Str

The energy sector fell 5.8 percent and materials stocks 5 percent. Beach Energy fell 8 percent to $1.61 and Woodside Energy 6.9 percent to $30.20. It was the sector’s worst one-day loss since May 2020. However, the big four banks rallied on the prospect of improving lending profits as they passed the Reserve Bank of Australia’s half a percentage point hike to the official interest rate. Selling stretched across Asian equity markets with Japan’s Nikkei 225 on track for a 1.1 percent loss, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index 2.3 percent and China’s CSI 300 Index 2 percent. Sentiment was shaken by news that Shanghai had launched mass COVID-19 testing in nine districts after detecting cases over the past two days, reigniting concerns about a return to lockdown in China’s financial hub. Citi warned a recession could lead to crude oil surging to $65 per barrel by year-end and falling further to $45 by the end of 2023, in the absence of intervention by OPEC+, and a decline in short-cycle oil invest