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The 1973-74 bear market was a brutal one as investors worried about rising inflation and faltering economic activity, exacerbated by OPEC’s decision in October 1973 to stop oil exports to the United States. Move in key steps US blue-chip stock market index, S & The P 500, fell 42.6 percent in the 21 months ended September 1974. Fast forward nearly half a century, and investors are once again spooked by rising inflation and stagnating economic activity. S & The P 500 index fell 20.6 percent in the first six months of 2022, its worst first-half performance in more than 50 years. Since then, however, financial markets have strengthened strongly, with the prices of stocks, bonds and cryptocurrencies posting impressive gains. Since hitting its lowest point on June 16, S & The P 500 has gained 12.6 percent, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq has gained 16.4 percent. The only plausible explanation for this rally is that – like Corrigan – investors have formed the view that it is time to

Retail sales rose 1.0 percent last month, the Commerce Department said, exceeding a Reuters poll forecast of 0.8 percent. Data for May was revised up to show sales fell 0.1 percent instead of the previously reported 0.3 percent. Retail sales increased 8.4 percent on a year-on-year basis and 18 percent above their pre-pandemic trend. While the retail sales data was laudable, economists were cautious about pointing out that a big reason for the gains was from a spike in gasoline prices. “Yes, consumers spend more, but they don’t take home the same amount of goods,” First Trust said in a note. “Adjusted for the consumer price index (CPI), retail sales fell 0.3 percent in June.” Separately, consumers reduced their inflation expectations in July, a fourth report from the University of Michigan showed. The yield on the US 10-year note fell 4 basis points to 2.92 percent as of 4:59 p.m. in New York. Two years it was at 3.12 percent. Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, said the o

Can we really see the equity base? Rubner certainly sees signs of resilience, not least of which is that for all the pain investors have endured this year, they have continued to hold on to their shares, with small equity outflows this year far from the investor capitulation that has historically signaled the end of a bear market. That the rally on Wall Street was not derailed by the strong US employment data released late Friday also shows fresh signs of resilience. Indeed, the idea that bad news is good news – that is, strong economic data supporting a further round of aggressive central bank rate hikes is actually positive because it will bring about a recession that will see the Federal Reserve start easing monetary policy again – seems to be gaining some acceptance. . The shift from cyclical stocks that will succeed in an inflationary environment towards stocks that win when inflation is low or even falling speaks for itself. Bank of America data showed material stocks on Wall Str