Why this expert says everyone is wrong about the US recession
A: I still don’t have a recession (in my estimation). Obviously, the risk of a recession is high – I mean, obviously, when inflation is really high and the Fed is at DEFCON 1 and really focused on lowering inflation by pushing up interest rates, and the sentiment is depressing, isn’t it? I talk to CEOs, CFOs, investors, friends, family – to those people, they think we’re going into a recession. I’ve never seen anything like it. I have seen many business cycles now. And no one predicts a recession. But this one, everyone predicts a recession. So when sentiment is so fragile, it doesn’t take much to push us. I think with a little luck, and some pretty good policymaking by the Fed, we’ll be able to avoid a recession. But I’m not saying that with great confidence. I don’t think we need a recession to bring inflation back. Oil prices will roll over. Natural gas prices will fall. We will see vehicle prices drop as supply chain issues are resolved and we get more vehicle production