Why this expert says everyone is wrong about the US recession
A: I still don’t have a recession (in my estimation). Obviously, the risk of a recession is high – I mean, obviously, when inflation is really high and the Fed is at DEFCON 1 and really focused on lowering inflation by pushing up interest rates, and the sentiment is depressing, isn’t it? I talk to CEOs, CFOs, investors, friends, family – to those people, they think we’re going into a recession. I’ve never seen anything like it. I have seen many business cycles now. And no one predicts a recession. But this one, everyone predicts a recession. So when sentiment is so fragile, it doesn’t take much to push us. I think with a little luck, and some pretty good policymaking by the Fed, we’ll be able to avoid a recession. But I’m not saying that with great confidence. I don’t think we need a recession to bring inflation back. Oil prices will roll over. Natural gas prices will fall. We will see vehicle prices drop as supply chain issues ...