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Europe feels the pain as the Kremlin war drags on, but, in the long
run, Russia will pay a heavy price
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Across Europe, signs of distress multiply as Russia’s war in Ukraine drags on: Food banks in Italy feed more people, German officials turn off air conditioning as they prepare plans to ration natural gas and restart coal plants.
Key points:
Just as Europe is recovering from the pandemic, its economic future looks uncertain as Russia’s war in Ukraine continues
Meanwhile, high energy costs, fueled by the war, benefited the Kremlin and kept the ruble
But in the long run, economists say, Russia will pay a heavy price for its war
A giant utility is asking for a taxpayer bailout, and more to come. Dairy companies wonder how they are going to pasteurize milk. The euro has slumped to a 20-year low against the dollar, and recession predictions are on the rise.
Those pressure points are signs of how the conflict — and the fact that the Kremlin is gradually suffocating the natural gas that keeps industry humming — is provoking an energy crisis in Europe and increasing the likelihood of plunging back into recession just as the economy recovers from the crisis. Covid-19 pandemic.
Meanwhile, war-fueled high energy costs have, for now, benefited Russia, a major oil and natural gas exporter whose agile central bank and years of experience living with sanctions have stabilized the ruble and inflation, despite its economic isolation.
In the longer term, however, economists say Russia, while avoiding total collapse, will pay a heavy price for the war, including deepening economic stagnation through lost investment and lower incomes for its people.
German companies stockpile fuel if electricity or natural gas is cut off.(AP: Matthias Schrader)
Inflation, winter stalking Europe
Europe’s most pressing challenge is the short term: fighting a record 8.6 percent inflation and getting through the winter without crippling energy shortages.
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