Andrew Johns: Why NSW will beat Queensland in the Origin decider

For Queensland, central midfielder Daly Cherry-Evans will do 90 percent kick while Ben Hunt will do bit by bit when needed, from a dummy or five-eight, depending on where the coach is Billy Slater decided to play it.

Lost monsters

Cameron Munster has been sidelined after testing positive for COVID-19 and this is truly a shame for everyone, even NSW. You want to play your opponent at full strength.

To place a number on it Queensland will cost 12 to 14 points.

In the second game, he tried to score. In the first game, he set up an experiment.

Load

You can’t stop or you can’t plan what Munster brings. It made a huge hole for Slater to fill now that he was sidelined.

Did they go with Hunt, who had started the prostitute, or Tom Deardenwho is in the 17 man squad?

I’ll start with Hunt in jumper No.6. Dearden is only 49 games in his NRL career.

In his mind, Dearden would ask if he was ready to play at this level. Starting him on the bench would be a better option.

The key to both is playing their natural game. They couldn’t imitate Munster. No one can.

Munster’s absence added to the pressure on Cherry-Evans. I also wish Queensland had played more of the dummy-half.

Corey Oates has the ominous task of defusing Matt Burton’s monster bomb.Credit:Getty

Another change for Queensland is Corey Oate come for the winger Murray Taulagiwho also tested positive for COVID-19.

How Oates handled Burton’s high shot is the question.

Blues have to stay careful

The Blues gained a lot of confidence after their win in Perth – but they couldn’t start the third game like they finished the second.

Using two dummy-halfs is a masterstroke from coach Brad Fittler.

Nathan Cleary and NSW players celebrate in Perth.Credit:Getty Images

Koroisau Fire terrorized the Queensland centre-forward with his trick before Damien Cook came later in the game.

winger Brian To’o and Daniel Tupo yet to get the accolades they deserve from this series. Origin is all about kick-reception footy and both make sets going.

Injuries have ruled out prop Payne Haas and that’s a big loss.

This places the onus on Junior Paulo to lead the way forward and, to a lesser extent, Jacob Saifiti when he came.

Know your job, charge as hard as you can, and push the boundaries.

Can Nathan Cleary improve himself beyond the superstar qualities he has shown?

With a cool head, he can control the speed of the game, control the pressure with his kick game. He’s in the big game.

by James Tedesco leadership has been outstanding.

NSW captain James Tedesco played a major role in the second game.Credit:Getty Images

His performance in game two is one of the great Origin games of a captain.

If it weren’t for Cleary’s performance in the second half, he would have been man of the match and I’m sure he would have been awarded the Wally Lewis Medal after the game as player of the series.

Decision

I expect NSW to strike to their left.

maroon center Dane Gagai defense has been questioned throughout this series. He failed to make 17 tackles in two games.

Defending alongside him is Cherry-Evans, and he will be a real target for any number of tackles as he becomes the focal point of the Queensland attack. Surviving within him, is Jeremiah Nanaiwho are new to this arena.

The three haven’t stuck together much at this level yet, so expect a lot of traffic coming through.

Load

Queensland will also attack on the left, which is fullback Kalyn Ponga side.

In game one, he threw a pass to Valentine Holmes. In the second game, he trapped Munster as he came out from the center right of NSW Stephen Crichton.

The Maroons will lean on more Ponga, playing like a traditional five-eight.

Joey’s Tips: NSW at 8 o’clock.
First try goalscorer: Cam Murray.
Match star: James Tedesco.

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