'Threatening' Asteroid on Collision Path With Earth Just Lowered

It’s nice to know that someone actually gets paid to watch the night sky to make sure that at least we’ll be notified if an asteroid is about to hit Earth.

Technology and near-Earth surveys have advanced enough that the possibility of an asteroid the size of a planet-killer appearing out of nowhere, as is so prevalent in modern media depictions, is highly unlikely.

Even the smaller ones, which would only annihilate a city or part of a continent, received enough attention to know whether they posed a threat or not.

And ahead of Asteroid Day 2022, which happens on June 30, the ESA is proud to announce that they can remove one of the most threatening asteroids from their list of potential impacts.

The asteroid, known as 2021 QM1, was first detected at the Mount Lemmon observatory on August 28, 2021. It was only one of about a dozen near-Earth asteroids discovered that night and did not initially raise any alarm. But follow-up observations put it on a potentially near-miss path with Earth around 2052.

Above: Gif of QM3’s 2021 orbital path around Earth and the Sun.

Coming in at about 50 meters (160 feet) in diameter, the 2021 QM1 will have enough punch to release the equivalent of nearly six megatons of TNT into the atmosphere at an altitude of just 9 kilometers (6 miles). To compare it to the most commonly used metric for high energy impact, 400 times the power of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima.

Only once in recent history has an asteroid of this size hit Earth. Fortunately Tunguska, which releases 12 megatons of energy, and whose date is commemorated as Annual Asteroid Day, occurred in a remote part of Siberia.

So while it razed 2,150 square kilometers (830 square miles) of forest, only about three people are thought to have died in the event. But if such an impact were to occur in population centers, the results could be catastrophic.

That event is sure to be on the minds of asteroid defenders when collecting follow-up data on QM1 2021.

Unfortunately for their nerves, another astronomical event will make them restless for a while. The asteroid disappeared behind the Sun for several months, making further observations impossible.

Patience is a virtue for most scientists, so they are patiently waiting and planning to gather more data with one of the best weapons in their asteroid hunting arsenal – the Very Large Telescope.

When the asteroids emerged from behind the sun, they were ready. And they managed to capture an image of the faintest asteroid ever observed.

Those observations showed them that there was a 0 percent chance that 2021 QM1 would hit Earth in 2052, as previously thought. Its orbital path will pose no danger whatsoever in the foreseeable future.

2021 QM1 is not the first asteroid to be removed from the dangerous list after sub-optimal blocking maneuvers by other celestial bodies.

In February, the ESA removed another asteroid from its list after the moon blocked observations. By then, 2022, AE1, as the asteroid is known, has a much closer window of potential collision – July 4, 2023.

The 70m-high rock could cause more damage than 2021 QM1 and has the potential to be the most destructive fireworks display of all time.

This all raises the question of what exactly would we do if another asteroid were discovered with a potential event impact? A lot of plans are already in place, and it’s better to discuss them in another article, but needless to say, the asteroid defense team will be keeping an eye on it.

And for now, at least, there’s nothing to worry about.

This article was originally published by Universe Today. Read the original article.

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